The Calgary real estate market began recovering in 2012, and so far this year, the future is looking bright.

CREB® statistics for the first three months of the year, as well as its outlook for 2013, suggest the recovery is expected to continue. So, what does this mean for people who are considering buying or selling their homes?

As the president of CREB®’s board of directors, I am also a REALTOR®. One of the most frequent questions I get asked is ‘Is this a good year to buy or sell?’

You’ve probably seen the headlines: “Calgary Real Estate the Lone Shining Star in Canada: TD Report”; “Calgary Housing Market Experiencing Positive Momentum”; and “Calgary Future Homes Value, One of the Best Nationwide!!”

These kinds of headlines, as well as the positivity we’ve been seeing in the local real estate market are a sign that this a good time to both buy and to sell. Based on current conditions, and assuming economic growth follows projections, CREB®’s chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie said we can expect to see moderate price gains in the market this year.

Sellers will be happy to learn our balanced market is continuing to trend into seller’s territory in the single-family market. The condominium market remains balanced.

As spring gets into full swing, we generally expect to see more “For Sale” signs. This could be great news for homebuyers who have been hampered by the lack of inventory in the city.

At the beginning of the year, inventory levels were down by double digits, meaning our market is a bit tight. With fewer houses on the market in the city, buyers have been hopping in their cars and checking out surrounding communities where they’ve been discovering they can get more home for their money.

Of course, the housing market is prone to cyclical ups and downs. The latest TD Economics report released in March looked at national trends and concluded Canadians should expect to “embark on a gradual, modest, downward adjustment over the next three years.” But Calgary, where housing has long been seen as a steady, appreciating asset, will be an “out-performer” in relation to the national housing market.

This is due, in part, to a projected population growth through 2030 that should be above the national average. Other factors that will affect the long-run rate of return for home prices aremacroeconomic fundamentals, such as income and economic growth, and structural changes, including an aging populace and the number of immigrants as a share of total homebuyers.

All of these factors indicate you can buy with confidence and that real estate in the Calgary area will be a solid investment for years to come.

TAGGED AS: CALGARY REAL ESTATE, CREB PRESIDENT BECKY WALTERS

Spring has brought some fresh air to the home resale market in Calgary.

The inventory of active homes for sale in Calgary in March was the lowest level for the month in more than five years. Homes are selling quickly, but the decline in new listings also hampered resale sales growth.

There were five per cent fewer new listings in March compared to the same month in 2012; inventory is also five per cent lower after the first quarter. As a result, volume also dropped by more than two per cent last month compared to March 2012. Overall active listings stand at just 4,006 units, up from February’s levels but well below the number available one year ago.

“Less resale product available to consumers is ultimately limiting sales growth,” said CREB® President Becky Walters. “In addition, resale homes are selling in less time and with continued upward pressure on prices.”

Walters said buyers have grown accustomed to a market where they have more time to make decisions because of ample supply. But, as market conditions have tightened, if they are serious about purchasing a resale home, buyers can no longer significantly delay that decision.

“While market conditions are a far cry from activity witnessed throughout the frenzy in 2006 and 2007, there has been a noticeable change over what become the norm over the past few years.” Walters said.

Single-family year-over-year sales growth declined by six per cent in March, a reflection of declining supply. Active inventory totaled 2,713 units, 22 per cent lower than levels recorded in 2012, and the lowest March inventory level recorded since 2007. The market balance continues to trend into seller’s territory in this segment, causing a year-over-year price increase of nearly nine per cent, for a total of $446,500 in March 2013.

“Tighter rental conditions and continued employment growth has supported housing demand growth,” said Ann-Marie Laurie, CREB®’s chief economist. “However, for those looking for more affordable single-family home products, their choices continue to narrow.”

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s Rental Market Report, released in the fall, showed the apartment vacancy rate in the Calgary CMA declined to 1.3 in October 2012, down from 1.9 per cent in October 2011 and the third consecutive yearly decline.

Lurie said new single-family listings under $500,000 are declining at double-digit rates, driving consumers at that price point to either surrounding towns, condominiums or the new home market.

Calgary’s condominium townhouse market was the only category to record a year-over-year rise in sales activity for the month. This is in part because the level of new listings improved in March 2013 relative to March 2012. Condominium yearover- year apartment sales declined by nearly three per cent in March.

However, after the first quarter, sales activity totaled 830 units, a six per cent increase over the previous year. Condominium townhouse sales totaled 652 units at the end of the first quarter, a 15 per cent increase over the previous year.

“The condominium apartment market remains in balance,” said Lurie. “While it has moved to the lower end of the spectrum, it remains better supplied than the single-family market and the majority of product available is in an affordable price range.”

The benchmark apartment price totaled $257,700 in March, a six per cent increase over the previous year. Meanwhile, the condominium townhouse benchmark price experienced a year-over-year increase of four per cent, to $286,800.

“Despite tighter market conditions, it is unlikely that we will have another significant run-up in prices,” said Lurie. “Outside of easing economic factors expected this year, consumers have options in the total housing market.”

Gregory Klump, the Canadian Real Estate Association’s chief economist, said it’s too early in the year to draw sweeping conclusions.

“Until we get well into the summer months, year-over-year comparisons to months in the first half of 2012 are predictably going to be down significantly but not necessarily be indicative of further deterioration,” he said. “Rather, year-over-year comparisons will continue to reflect the long shadow cast by higher sales prior to last summer’s policy tightening. Looking at the monthly trend since then shows that we’ve been seeing reasonably stable trends for demand and prices.”

CREB® Regional Housing Statistics – March 2013

CREB® Monthly Housing Summary – March 2013

TAGGED AS: CALGARY REAL ESTATE, CREB PRESIDENT BECKY WALTERS, CREB® CHIEF ECONOMIST ANN-MARIE LURIE